Another typhoon threatens the country…


As Typhoon “Juan” (International Name “Megi”) barely makes its way out of the country’s Area of Responsibility, another Low Pressure Area east of the country is being watched for its potential to be the next weather disturbance to enter the country, most likely as early as Saturday.

 

Should this weather disturbance develop into a tropical depression or typhoon, it will be dubbed Typhoon “Katring”.

 

While “Juan” isolated and literally wiped out some areas in the north, it may be noted that fewer casualties were seen with 19 losing their lives as a direct result of the typhoon.  The government attributes this to better preparedness and early warning protocols employed. 

 

Isabela suffered the worst from the typhoon as the rest of Northern and Central Luzon experienced flooding and power outages.

“Juan” practically on top of Cagayan

Weather satellites show that typhoon “Juan” (International Codename “Megi”) is practically on top of Cagayan province, with its clouds spanning the whole of Luzon.   Because of this, Storm Warning Signal No.4 is now raised over Cagayan, Isabela, Kalinga, Mountain Province and Ifugao; Signal No. 3 in Batanes, Calayan, Babuyan Group of Islands, Apayao, Benguet, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya and Northern Aurora.  Storm Signal No. 2 was hoisted in Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Abra, La Union, Rest of Aurora, Pangasinan, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija and Polillio Island while Storm Signal No. 1 was hoisted in Metro Manila, Cavite, Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan, Zambales, Northern Quezon, Rizal, Laguna and Batangas. The public is urged to exercise due caution.

Signal Number 4 in Cagayan Region

Over 7million people stand to be affected by “Juan” as it plummets through Northern Luzon through the night, packing winds of up to 225KPH.

 

Signal Number 4 has now been raised in the Cagayan Region.  Forced evacuation is being seriously considered for residents who refuse to temporarily leave their homes.

 

While the National Capital Region is not expected to be directly affected, resources are being mobilized anyway given the large breadth of “Juan’s” storm clouds.

“Juan” now a Super Typhoon

(JUAN) is now an extremely catastrophic Super Typhoon as its wind speed increases to 270KpH, rendering Northern Luzon in full danger as the howler continues tracking westward.

Residents and visitors along Northern and Central Luzon particularly Cagayan and Isabela should closely monitor the progress of MEGI (JUAN).


Typhoon “MEGI” a.k.a. “Juan” is currently showing a 28-km clear eye – a sign that the howler is having an “explosive deepening” intensification. At 7:39 AM (23:39 GMT) this morning, a US Navy C-130 Reconnaissance Aircraft reported maximum outbound surface winds of 146knots, 270 kph, with a very low pressure of 908 millibars.  The super typhoon is expected to continue moving westward across the Philippine Sea for the next 6 hours, before diving its track to the WSW through 48 hours.  “Juan” is forecast to continue intensifying and will reach its peak strength of 270 km/hr tonight.  The howler will be off the coast of Cagayan tomorrow morning as it prepares to make landfall [8PM OCT 17: 18.5N 125.1E @ 270kph…8AM OCT 18: 18.0N 122.9E @ 260kph].  The powerful core of MEGI (eye and eye-wall) is now expected to make landfall over Southern Cagayan around noontime tomorrow, traversing the provinces of Cagayan, Apayao, Kalinga, Abra and Ilocos Sur – Monday afternoon until early Tuesday morning.  

Projected Landfall Area (Time):

South of Escarpada Point, Northern Cagayan or along the Cagayan Mountains, about 55kms, East North East of Tuguegarao City Monday noontime.  “Juan” will pass very close to Tuguegarao City tomorrow between 1-2 PM Monday and will be about 15 km South of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur between 9-10 PM.


Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have rapidly increased to near 260 km/hr (140 knots) with higher gusts.  “Juan” is now a Category 5 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale, some strengthening is still likely prior to landfall over Cagayan tomorrow.  Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 100 kilometers (55 nautical miles) from the center and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 270 kilometers (145 nautical miles).  “Juan” is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 740 kilometers (400 nautical miles) across.

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Storm Signal Number Three (3)

Now In Effect: ISABELA, CAGAYAN, CALAYAN & BABUYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS.

Storm Signal Number Two (2)

Now In Effect: BATANES, ILOCOS PROVINCES, APAYAO, ABRA, KALINGA, MT. PROVINCE, IFUGAO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO, & NORTHERN AURORA.

The above areas will experience stormy weather beginning tonight until tomorrow (with winds not exceeding 100 kph…and more than 100 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

Storm Signal Number Three (3)

In Effect: LA UNION, BENGUET, PANGASINAN, NUEVA ECIJA, & REST OF AURORA.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph beginning tonight until tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 1, 2 & 3 are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides…while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).

Public Storm Signals hoisted over Northern Luzon

The weather bureau PAG-ASA has raised storm signals across Northern Luzon as “Juan” intensified over night.

The prevailing storm signals are : from signal 1 to 2 over Cagayan, Isabela, Babuyan and Calayan group of islands; signal 1 over the provinces of Ilocos, Apayao, Abra, Kalinga, Mt. Province, La Union, Benguet, Ifugao, Vizcaya, Quirino, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Pangasinan, Batanes.

The public is urged to exercise caution as the storm nears landfall as PAG-ASA expects “Juan” to worsen in the next 24 hours.